Forecasting Model of Urban Traffic Accidents Based on Gray Model GM(1,1)

Abstract

This paper presents a grey model based on grey system to forecasting the accidents of urban traffic. As we know traffic accidents have become a more and more important factor that restrict the development of economy and threaten the safety of human beings. Grey system quests for the inner relation through the original data with grey model. This is an approach to get the prospective data with the original data. Urban traffic accident forecasting model based on grey model-GM (1,1) uses few original data, guided by the theory of grey system, processing the data by using accumulated generating operator - AGO. With the validation of known data, error of GM(1,1) is no more than 10%, it indicates that GM(1,1) can be used in actual traffic accidents forecasting.