Forecasting model for the number of long stay Japanese tourist arrivals in Chiang Mai

Abstract

Aim: The aging phenomenon of the elderly occurs worldwide, especially in Japan, which is the highest average age. Therefore, long-stay tourism is alternative tourism for the elderly Japanese tourists. This research aimed to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the number of long stays Japanese tourist arrivals in Chiang Mai, Thailand.Method: The data in this study gathered from the Chiang Mai Immigration Office was recorded monthly from January 2014 to July 2017, a total of 43 months. Then the data were classified into two sets. The first data set from January 2014 to December 2016 for 36 months was used to build the forecasting model using Classical decomposition, Seasonal, simple exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins, and Combining. The second data set from January 2017 to July 2017, a total of 7 months, was used to compare the earlier three forecasting accuracy model methods via the criteria of RMSE.Findings: Research results indicated that combining forecasts was the most suitable for forecasting the number of long-term Japanese tourist arrivals in Chiang Mai.Implications/Novel Contribution: It can be noticed that there has been no published study in academic journals concerning the forecasting long stay Japanese tourist arrivals in Chiang Mai, Thailand. So this research contributes to the literature by adding significant knowledge.