FORECASTING MODEL FOR DEVELOPMENT PROCESS OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS IN HAZARDOUS PRODUCTION FACILITIES

Abstract

Background Accidents occur at hazardous industrial facilities in the oil and gas industry quite rarely, but including great damage to material, human and environmental values. Therefore, the prediction of their occurrence and especially the development dynamics is one of the main industrial safety indicators. There is a sufficient amount of works in this sphere, but the forecast accuracy depends on the type of selected indicators and the method of evaluating their interaction. Aims and Objectives: o select the indicators that allow predicting emergency situation occurrence and development dynamics more correct; o create the model to analyze emergency situation development. Methods As a basic model, the Lotka-Volterra equations were used. It allows to fulfill deep analysis of the emergency development. Results A model for the emergency development at a hazardous production facility has been ob- tained in which the ratio of the change rate for entropy arising from release or received energy potentials to its residual value and damage from material, human and environmental losses are chosen as integrative criteria.