Forecasting method of aero-material consumption rate based on seasonal ARIMA model

Abstract

It is indispensable to scientifically predict the consumption of aero-material and to make scientific decisions on aviation equipment maintenance resources and make full use of existing resources to improve maintenance capability. In the process of aviation equipment maintenance and support, the consumption of aero-material tends to show a seasonal change. This paper proposes a seasonal ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model to solve the problem of aero-material consumption rate forecasting. Then the mathematical model and calculation method of the seasonal ARIMA are introduced in detail. And the application of seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the aero-material consumption rate is analyzed by examples. The results demonstrate that the approach of this article has high precision and reliability which could provide data support for the reliability maintenance and replacement of aero-material.