Forecasting method for water quality time series of few and abnormal data

Abstract

According to the characteristics of small samples and sudden change of some sections in Three Gorges,the ELS-SVM water quality prediction model for Three Gorges was proposed,which consisted of Equal Level Pretreatment Model(ELPM) and Least Squares Support Vector Machines(LS-SVM).ELPM was brought forward to preprocess raw time series data to enhance the smoothness,and Simulated Annealing(SA) algorithm was used for choosing the optimal parameters of LS-SVM.The experimental results indicate that,compared to the typical forecasting models in limited samples prediction,the ELS-SVM forecasting model is superior to the others in water quality parameter prediction of Three Gorges.