Forecasting Methane Data Using Multivariate Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks

Abstract

Over the past few decades, Alberta has witnessed a remarkable expansion in its oil and gas sector. Unfortunately, this growth has come at a cost, as Alberta has become the fastest-growing source of pollutant emissions in greenhouse gases (GHGs), sulphur emissions, and water pollution in Canada. Among these GHGs, methane stands out as the second most prevalent GHG, possessing a global warming potential ~ 28 times higher than carbon dioxide over a span of 100 years, and ~ 80 times higher over a period of 20 years. Since 1986, the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) has been diligently gathering data on methane concentrations. Although this data is publicly available, its analysis has not been thoroughly explored. Our study aims to investigate the impact of temperature, wind speed, and wind direction on the predictions of methane concentration time series data, utilizing a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model. Our findings indicate that the inclusion of climate variables enhances the predictive capabilities of the LSTM model. However, the results show that it is not obvious which variable has the most impact on the improvement although temperature appears to have a better effect on improving predictive performance compared to wind speed and direction. The results also suggest that the variance of the input data does not affect forecasting performance.