Abstract
How many times is a forecast of a technological development correct? According to many experienced managers, it almost never is. Then what good is a forecast? A forecast helps make important innovation decisions, according to Brian C. Twiss. He argues that precision in forecasting a technological development is seldom needed for purposes of long‐term planning and that any innovation so marginal that small errors in forecasting will make a big difference should not be considered anyway. Twiss suggests that technology forecasting can be of real value once it is accepted that it is essentially concerned with modeling human behavior. This is the unexpected viewpoint that Twiss presents in this article. He explains how to develop and how to use a technology forecast in long‐range planning.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
