Forecasting Malaysia Under-5 Mortality Using State Space Model

Abstract

Under-five mortality is a key point for child prosperity and most countries discuss under-five mortality. However, early childhood mortality is still high and turns into a huge problem in some developing countries. The aim of this study is to analyze the trend pattern, develop forecasting models and forecast future trends of under-five mortality in Malaysia by gender. The yearly under-five mortality rates (U5MR) of a 37-year period (1980 – 2016) in Malaysia had been modelled using State Space model. It was found that the U5MR in Malaysia had fluctuated from year to year with a slowly decreasing trend pattern for both genders with males having a higher rate compared to females. Based on Local Linear Trend model, the future trend is increasing slightly and forecast trend for the male population is higher than the female. This study could become a reference for developed and developing countries. It could also become a guideline for human resource management and health care allocation planning.