Forecasting Maize Price using Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

Maize is emerging as third most important crop after rice and wheat in India. A better understanding of maize price situation and future prices will facilitate farmers and end users to make appropriate decisions regarding buying and selling patterns; hence government should make adequate policies. Exponential smoothing method is appropriate tool in time series analysis. Forecast of maize price can be done by using simple exponential smoothing method. The forecasted results suggest that there are expectations of increasing maize prices. This method is carried out for statistical model for the time series data. The forecasting accuracy of exponential smoothing method was discussed and computations of root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and mean absolute deviation were done. Forecast using actual values of the data and forecast error rate are discussed numerically and graphically. Keywords: Maize price, simple exponential smoothing, forecasting, error method Cite this Article Velusamy M, Senthamarai Kannan K. Forecasting Maize Price using Exponential Smoothing Method. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics . 2018; 7(1): 91s–95sp