Forecasting low flow conditions months in advance through teleconnection patterns, with a special focus on summer 2018

M. Ionita,V. Nagavciuc

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-70060-8

Abstract

Over the past decades, Europe has been affected by several low flow periods which had substantial impacts on the hydrology of the rivers themselves as well as on the society and economy. Low flow periods have a direct impact on the environment, on the inland waterway navigation, on the hydropower production as well as on the sediment management, among others. Similar to floods, low flows are naturally occurring phenomena which can significantly hinder different uses and functions of the rivers and impact the aquatic system and the water quality. Moreover, it is projected that, in the future, climate change might lead to drier summers over the European region and therefore to more frequent and severe low flow periods. The results presented here show that the summer 2018 low flow situation, over the Rhine and Elbe Rivers basin, could have been predicted up to two seasons ahead by using previous months' sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, mean air temperature and soil moisture. The lagged relationship between the predictand (e.g. seasonal streamflow) and the climate and oceanic predictors varies between 1 month (e.g. precipitation) up to 6 months (e.g. sea surface temperature). Taking into account that all predictors are available in real-time, the forecast scheme can be used to provide early warnings for the upcoming low flow situations, thus offering the possibility for better management of the water resources.

Highlights

Over the past decades, Europe has been affected by several low flow periods which had substantial impacts on the hydrology of the rivers themselves as well as on the society and economy
In Europe, the monetary losses caused by hydrological and meteorological extremes, over the period 1980–2017, amounted to ~ 453 billion Euro[4]. Prolonged dry periods, such as the ones observed in the last decades (e.g. 2003, 2015, and 2018) have emphasized the degree of vulnerability of society to this natural hazard and alerted different governmental agencies and stakeholders regarding the damaging effects drought can have on the economy and society[5,6]
In the present study we have investigated the predictability of summer low flow conditions for Rhine and Elbe Rivers, using climatic and oceanic large-scale gridded data from previous months/seasons as potential predictors

Summary

Introduction

Europe has been affected by several low flow periods which had substantial impacts on the hydrology of the rivers themselves as well as on the society and economy. In Europe, the monetary losses caused by hydrological and meteorological extremes, over the period 1980–2017, amounted to ~ 453 billion Euro[4] Prolonged dry periods, such as the ones observed in the last decades (e.g. 2003, 2015, and 2018) have emphasized the degree of vulnerability of society to this natural hazard and alerted different governmental agencies and stakeholders regarding the damaging effects drought can have on the economy and society[5,6]. In 2017, 23% of the transported volumes were intended for export, 46% came from the import Facing these issues, it is crucial for low flow management, economy, and society, that more accurate monthly, seasonal and long-term (decades) predictions of low flows become available

Methods

Findings

Conclusion