Abstract
Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplete observations that are available in a few hours after the main shocks. We demonstrate the method's utility by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan. Furthermore, we compare the results by the real-time data with the compiled preliminary data to examine robustness of the present method for the aftershocks of a recent inland earthquake in Japan.
Highlights
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock
Despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks
In this paper, we have proposed a method for forecasting underlying aftershock activity from the observed data of incompletely detected earthquakes
Summary
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock. Despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. In the first 24 h after the main shock, a probability of a large aftershock that possibly causes the secondary disaster in and around the focal area is high. We propose a method for forecasting underlying aftershock activity that includes missing aftershocks, using the incomplete observations that are available a few hours after the main shock. The usefulness of the proposed method in forecasting aftershock activity within 24 h after the main shock is demonstrated by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan by analysing the data from the National Earthquake Information Center/Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (NEIC/PDE) catalogue (Fig. 1).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
