Forecasting land-cover change effects on waterbirds in Xiamen Bay, China: Determining prospective species winners and losers

Abstract

Waterbirds are vital to coastal wetland ecosystem, and play significant roles in global biodiversity maintenance, cultural and educational services, etc. Waterbirds are particularly vulnerable to environmental change, particularly land-cover change, which has severely degraded their ecological niches. Accordingly, this study developed a waterbird-habitat preference index to quantify waterbird dependence on Xiamen Bay's habitats and a subsidiary waterbird-specific habitat suitability index to predict potential effects of future land-cover change on waterbirds. Results showed that the waterbird-habitat preference index ranged from −9.8 to 18.71, indicating that habitat selection varied greatly among different waterbird species, where tidal flats were the most popular waterbird habitat. Additionally, most waterbird species showed a preference for more than one habitat, which could be indicative of their diverse ecological demands. Effects on waterbirds varied greatly among the three different land-cover scenarios, where positive benefits were predicted under the ecological protection scenario (EPS), while the greatest negative effects were observed under the development and utilization scenario (DUS). Effects also varied among different waterbirds species. Those under the current trend scenario (CTS) (e.g., Tringa brevipes and Calidris ruficollis) could be at risk for species abundance loss (i.e., losers) while others (i.e., Egretta garzetta and Saundersilarus saundersi) could benefit from increased abundance (i.e., winners). Generally, migratory and traveling birds were much more vulnerable than resident birds. Spatially, conservation priority should be given to the Dadeng Waters and those waters adjacent to it (i.e., Tongan Bay and Anhai Bay) because of the highest waterbird loss risk in these areas under a conflict between an urgent need to protect waterbird biodiversity and intense present and future land-cover development. The intent of this study is to provide a useful tool to explore land-cover effects on waterbirds in similar coastal regions, which can provide important information on protection and restoration strategies.