Abstract

OVERVIEW:The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) is a research arm of the US intelligence community. IARPA research programs are undertaken by diverse teams drawn from industry and academia. One of IARPA’s best-known programs is in the area of anticipatory intelligence, or forecasting. The lessons of that effort can be applied to the forecasting of science and technology. Most notably, the most accurate forecasts emerge from the averaging of forecasts that draw on a wide variety of data streams.

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