Forecasting Induced Earthquake Hazard Using a Hydromechanical Earthquake Nucleation Model

Abstract

AbstractIn response to the dramatic increase in earthquake rates in the central United States, the U.S Geological Survey began releasing 1 yr earthquake hazard models for induced earthquakes in 2016. Although these models have been shown to accurately forecast earthquake hazard, they rely purely on earthquake statistics because there was no precedent for forecasting induced earthquakes based upon wastewater injection data. Since the publication of these hazard models, multiple physics-based methods have been proposed to forecast earthquake rates using injection data. Here, we use one of these methods to generate earthquake hazard forecasts. Our earthquake hazard forecasts are more accurate than statistics-based hazard forecasts. These results imply that fluid injection data, where and when available, and the physical implications of fluid injection should be included in future induced earthquake hazard forecasts.