Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts

Abstract

Part I. Identification and Efficient Estimation: 1. Incredible structural inference Thomas J. Rothenberg; 2. Structural equation models in human behavior genetics Arthur S. Goldberger; 3. Unobserved heterogeneity and estimation of average partial effects Jeffrey M. Wooldridge; 4. On specifying graphical models for causation and the identification problem David A. Freedman; 5. Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression James H. Stock and Motohiro Yogo; 6. Asymptotic distributions of instrumental variables statistics with many instruments James H. Stock and Motohiro Yogo; 7. Identifying a source of financial volatility Douglas G. Steigerwald and Richard J. Vagnoni; Part II. Asymptotic Approximations: 8. Asymptotic expansions for some semiparametric program evaluation estimators Hidehiko Ichimura and Oliver Linton; 9. Higher-order improvements of the parametric bootstrap for Markov processes Donald W. K. Andrews; 10. The performance of empirical likelihood and its generalizations Guido W. Imbens and Richard H. Spady; 11. Asymptotic bias for GMM and GEL estimators with estimated nuisance parameters Whitney K. Newey, Joaquim J. S. Ramalho and Richard J. Smith; 12. Empirical evidence concerning the finite sample performance of EL-type structural equation estimation and inference methods Ron C. Mittelhammer, George G. Judge and Ron Schoenberg; 13. How accurate is the asymptotic approximation to the distribution of realised variance? Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen and Neil Shephard; 14. Testing the semiparametric Box-Cox model with the bootstrap N. E. Savin and Allan H. Wurtz; Part III. Inference Involving Potentially Nonstationary Time Series: 15. Tests of the null hypothesis of cointegration based on efficient tests for a unit MA root Michael Jansson; 16. Robust confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients near one Samuel B. Thompson; 17. A unified approach to testing for stationarity and unit roots Andrew C. Harvey; 18. A new look at panel testing of stationarity and the PPP hypothesis Jushan Bai and Serena Ng; 19. Testing for unit roots in panel data: an exploration using real and simulated data Brownwyn H. Hall and Jacques Mairesse; 20. Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and policy regime shifts David F. Hendry and Grayham E. Mizon; Part IV. Nonparametric and Semiparametric Inference: 21. Nonparametric testing of an exclusion restriction Peter J. Bickel, Y. Ritov and James L. Powell; 23. Density weighted linear least squares Whitney K. Newey and Paul A. Ruud.