Forecasting High-Speed Railway Demand in the Absence of Air Competition – A Case Study

Amine Barzegar Tilenoie,Meeghat Habibian,Melody Khadem Sameni

doi:10.7307/ptt.v34i1.3862

Abstract

The main competitor of air transportation is High-Speed Railway (HSR). However, in an oil-exporting country with low fuel prices and strong car dependence, HSR can face fierce competition with private cars and even buses. There is little previous research that forecast modal share in this situation. The case study of this research is the Tehran-Hamedan route in Iran that has high travel demand due to several historical and economic reasons and in the absence of air transportation, building the HSR in this route attracted foreign investment. To analyse the travel behaviour of passengers after the introduction of HSR, 409 stated and revealed preferences were collected in a self-designed questionnaire. Multinomial logit (MNL) model and mixed logit (ML) model were developed and modal share of each mode of transportation were forecasted up to 2045. HSR modal share is compared with other routes of the world to see the impact of air competition. The overall modal share of railway in this route is estimated to reach 64%, which is close to the average of major HSR routes globally (around 60%). Therefore, private cars can be a fierce competitor for HSR when there is no air link on the route and fuel is rather cheap.

Highlights

This research forecasts High-Speed Railway (HSR) passenger demand between two cities of Tehran and Hamedan in Iran
For data collection in this study, a questionnaire was designed and completed by passengers who travel on this route; they were asked about their preferences regarding their choice of transportation mode
It should be considered that this research and its results are based on the current situation and due to potential changes in technologies and the emergence of new modes of transportation, as well as changes in passenger travel behaviour, the predicted demand for HighSpeed Railway (HSR) may not be fully met

Summary

Introduction

This research forecasts High-Speed Railway (HSR) passenger demand between two cities of Tehran and Hamedan in Iran. As one of the most important historical cities of Iran, is located in the west of the country and has a population of about 700,000 [1]. It is one of the ancient cities of Iran that was called Hegmataneh in the past and the capital and centre of kingdom of several dynasties. Three million passengers travel between Tehran and Hamedan per year and the modal share in this route shows that private car is the dominant mode (50%), followed by 46 % share for bus and only 2.5% for conventional train [3, 4].

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