Abstract
The occurrence and migration of groundwater is a key natural factor that directly affects the stability of landslides, and rainfall has a large effect on the groundwater level in soil landslides. This study used the Baijiabao landslide in the Three Georges area of China as the research subject and used a combination of more than seven years of rainfall and GPS (Global Positioning System) monitoring data from 2007 to 2013. We applied the K-means clustering method to classify one cycle of the evolution stage into three classes based on the relative displacement of the main sliding surface of the landslide. To illustrate the relationship between the three landslide evolution divisions and the dynamic indicators, we identified rainfall factors that correspond to the actual change in the landslide using the minimal description length principle method. Based on the relationship between the actual deformation stage of the landslide and the rainfall factor from historical monitoring, the mean absolute error of the dynamic exponential smoothing model was 0.053, and the correlation coefficient was 0.929. The size of the smoothness index could be modified in real-time to achieve dynamic correction, which indicates that the model exhibited high reliability and confirmed the usefulness of the proposed model for forecasting groundwater level changes based on deep-seated soil landslide type.
Highlights
Landslides have the characteristics of large loss, a frequent occurrence, widespread regional distribution, and other features [1]
It has been estimated that more than 90% of soil slope failures are related to rainfall and groundwater [3], and the Landslide groundwater level evolution is controlled by both hydrological and geological factors, which are mainly affected by the rainfall and reservoir water or the temperature
Based on the dynamic evaluation factors established in the last section, the accumulated monthly rainfall data may reflect the different deformation stages of the Baijiabao landslide
Summary
Landslides have the characteristics of large loss, a frequent occurrence, widespread regional distribution, and other features [1]. It has been estimated that more than 90% of soil slope failures are related to rainfall and groundwater [3], and the Landslide groundwater level evolution is controlled by both hydrological and geological factors, which are mainly affected by the rainfall and reservoir water or the temperature. These factors make the groundwater environment a synthetic and nonlinear dynamic system [4]. Fluctuations in groundwater levels caused by heavy rainfall will continuously influence the stability coefficient of the soft surface of soil landslides in certain areas [6]. Predicting dynamic groundwater level changes is critical in the evaluation of landslide stability [9]
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