Forecasting groundwater level fluctuations for rainfall-induced landslide

Abstract

Groundwater plays a critical and important role in many landslides. Heavy precipitation can raise the groundwater level within a hillslope and lead to instability. The purpose of this paper is to present a model by means of continuity equation to predict groundwater level fluctuations in hillslope in response to hourly precipitation rates. The linear reservoir method is employed to describe the travel time distribution of infiltration, and Darcy’s law is then used to establish the groundwater flux rate of control volume. The governing equation shows that the changing rate of groundwater level fluctuation can be interpreted by two new defined variables (Sink Number and Rise Number) in this study. The application of the model is demonstrated using the rainfall-induced landslide at Lu-Shan, Nantou County, Taiwan. Data from one storm event are used to calibrate the model and estimate parameters by using the heuristic algorithm. Post-storm rainfall data from another storm event are employed to verify the calibrated parameters. The contribution of this study shows that a small Sink Number results in a fast recession and a large Rise Number yields a fast rise of groundwater level. This method may be practical to have better understanding on the rainfall-induced landslide.