Forecasting GDP Per Capita In Bangladesh: Using Arima Model

Abstract

GDP per capita is one of the key indicators of the economic health of any country. It is often used by academicians and decision-makers to plan public and private policies. The work aims to forecast the real per capita GDP in Bangladesh. Using yearly data for Bangladesh from 1972 to 2019, the study analyzes future GDP per capita using the ARIMA technique. The ADF, PP, and KPSS tests showed that the appropriate model to forecast Bangladeshi GDP per capita is ARIMA (0, 2, 1). Finally, we applied in our paper the ARIMA model (0,2,1) to forecast the GDP per capita of Bangladesh for the next decade. The future GDP per capita shows that living standards in Bangladesh will continue. Indeed, Bangladesh's economy is growing, and other poor countries must learn from Bangladesh's experiences. The study offers policy prescriptions to help policymakers for Bangladesh on how to maintain, preserve, and promote sustainable growth in Bangladesh.