Forecasting Future Water Demands for Sustainable Development in Al-Ain City, United Arab Emirates

Abstract

Water demand forecasting plays an important role in the sustainable management of water resources, especially in countries facing water scarcity challenges, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Al-Ain, the second-largest city within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and the fourth largest in the UAE, faces the dual challenge of anticipated population growth and forthcoming development initiatives. These factors are set to exert added pressure on the city’s water resources. Hence, Al-Ain City requires an immediate assessment of future water demands as a critical step toward achieving sustainable development. The main objective of this study is to conduct a systematic analysis of historical consumption patterns and other relevant factors to predict future water demand and to present a water demand forecasting model to project the water requirements of Al-Ain City up to the year 2030. The proposed “Linear Forecast Model” for Al-Ain City is developed using the IWR-MAIN software (Version 6.0), with its core code developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Institute for Water Resources. The results of this model suggest that the total water demand is projected to increase by 45% by the year 2030. Among the sectors, the residential sector is expected to have the highest water demand, accounting for approximately 61% of the total water demand by 2030. The governmental and agricultural sectors are estimated to contribute 20% and 10% to the total demand, respectively, with the remaining 9% distributed across the other four sectors.