Abstract
Abstract Background: In spite of the course of the economic crisis of 2008, there have not been changes dramatic to the extent that they would strongly alter the behaviour of the trend in the Average Gross Monthly Wages and the Monthly Wage Medians in the Czech Republic. In order to support public and monetary planning, reliable forecasts of future salaries are indispensable. Objectives: The aim is to provide an outline of the behaviour of the average gross wages and the gross wage medians of the Czech business sphere up to the end of 2018 using an optimised random walk model and an optimised ARIMA Model with a constant. Methods: Consumer price indices were used in the confrontation of the behaviour of the Average Gross Monthly Wages and the Monthly Wage Medians with the behaviour of inflation in the Czech Republic. The Box-Jenkins methodology is used for the time series modelling. Results: The Czech Average Gross Monthly Wages and the Monthly Wage Medians in the business sector will continue to grow more rapidly than the Czech inflation growth, expressed by consumer price indices. Conclusions: It is possible to expect that the rising trend of the Average Gross Monthly Wages and the Gross Wage Medians will be more rapid than the growth of inflation.
Highlights
Stochastic modelling may seem to be a simple instrument, in the dynamic world of a developing economy, including that of the Czech Republic (Bucevska, 2012), the assumptions of even far more complicated models for estimating the future trend of economic time series may be very infringed (Smrčka et al, 2012)
If we compare the evolution of income in the business and non-business sector in the Czech Republic, we find the significant inequality between them, especially at the times economic slowdown
This value will be used for calculation of the indices of Average Gross Monthly Wages (AGMW), and the indices of Monthly Wage Medians (MWM)
Summary
Stochastic modelling may seem to be a simple instrument, in the dynamic world of a developing economy, including that of the Czech Republic (Bucevska, 2012), the assumptions of even far more complicated models for estimating the future trend of economic time series may be very infringed (Smrčka et al, 2012). The past shows us that, in spite of the course of the economic crisis of 2008 (Jeřábková et al, 2011), there have not been any changes so dramatic that they would strongly alter the behaviour of the trend in Average Gross Monthly Wages and Monthly Wage Medians. The Czech Republic is, according to the valid classification of the European Statistical Office (EUROSTAT), still classified as a developing economy. In spite of the course of the economic crisis of 2008, there have not been changes dramatic to the extent that they would strongly alter the behaviour of the trend in the Average Gross Monthly Wages and the Monthly Wage Medians in the Czech Republic. Conclusions: It is possible to expect that the rising trend of the Average Gross Monthly Wages and the Gross Wage Medians will be more rapid than the growth of inflation
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