Abstract
(1) Aim: To summarize alcohol trends in the last 30 years (1985/6–2017/8) among 15-year-olds in Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) countries (overall sample size: 413,399 adolescents; 51.55% girls) and to forecast the potential evolution in the upcoming 2021/22 HBSC survey. (2) Methods: Using 1986–2018 prevalence data on weekly alcohol consumption among 15-year-olds related to 40 HBSC countries/regions, a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model was adopted to estimate trends making a clusterization of the countries, and to give estimates for the 2022 HBSC survey. (3) Results: An overall declining trend in alcohol consumption was observed over time in almost all the countries. However, compared to 2014, some countries showed a new increase in 2018 and 2021/22 estimates forecast a slight increase in the majority of countries, pointing out a potential bounce after a decreasing period in frequent drinking habits. (4) Conclusions: The clusterization suggested a homogenization of consumption habits among HBSC countries. The comparison between 2022 observed and expected data could be helpful to investigate the effect of risk behaviour determinants, including the pandemic impact, occurring between the last two waves of the survey.
Highlights
(3) Results: An overall declining trend in alcohol consumption was observed over time in almost all the countries
This study aims to summarize the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) alcohol-related data of the last three decades and forecast the trends in frequent alcohol consumption among 15-year-olds in the upcoming HBSC survey sample as a contribution to the monitoring process of this public health issue
The present study provided an approach to model longitudinal data, to estimate potentially nonlinear trends and forecast frequent alcohol consumption prevalence given knowledge from the past
Summary
Excessive alcohol use has been identified as one of the major preventable risk factors for population health globally having a significant impact on many health-related indicators, as pointed out by the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target for “Strengthen the prevention and treatment of substance abuse, including narcotic drug abuse and harmful use of alcohol” [1]. Global Monitoring Framework sets a voluntary target to reduce the harmful use of alcohol as one of the NCD reduction aims till year 2025 [2]. The high public health burden of alcohol consumption is critical in the young age group (15–19 years old), where alcohol attributable mortality accounts for around.
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