Forecasting Flashover in a Compartment Fire by Using a Real-time Moving Average from Temperature Recordings

Abstract

A series of flashover fire tests were carried out using standard wood as fuel with various ventilation, and a comprehensive set of experimental data is presented. Fighting against compartment fires with occurance of flashover could cause fatal consequences on firefighters. This work shows that the potential dangers as flashover can be detected as soon as possible thanks to the comparison between two moving averages in the past calculated from a temperature recording in a very short time. The present study aims to evaluate the possibility of using only commonly available measurements as data to be assimilated into the model. A real-time decision method is developed, allowing to the selection of optimal intervention to minimize firefight occupant exposure to the detected hazard. This approach includes the mathematical analysis which is based on the comparison of two moving averages centered in the past, calculated on the recordings of the smoke temperature. Firefighters would greatly benefit from this predictive method in real time, able to assist their decision making process during operations against a compartment fire. From the safety point of view, the model gives conservative predictions for flashover fire.