Forecasting Evaluation of Public Listed Companies Revenue in Taiwan Tourism Industry-Comparison between Grey Forecasting Regression Analysis and Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Various governments regard tourism market as item to boost their economies. As a result, new administration in Taiwan tries every effort to attract Chinese from PRC to Taiwan. The officials shouts slogans to boost tourism, formulate some policies and travel agencies promote various preferential traveling schedules with aim of bringing tourists into Taiwan. This article mainly analyzes total revenue of public listed companies in Taiwan tourism industry from January 2004 to December 2007 to establish the revenue forecasting model of public listed companies in Taiwan tourism industry by Grey Theory (calculation month after month and calculation not month after month), simple linear regression analysis and single exponential smoothing. Additionally this article uses Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to select the minimum index as the best forecasting model. Then this article conducts revenue forecast from January to December 2008. Result indicates that method proposed by this article can not only provide counter strategies for tourism industry to face future challenge and serve as reference to government or related departments, but also can provide as a reference to relevant research in this field.