Forecasting End-of-Life Wind Turbine Material Flows in Australia under Various Wind Energy Deployment Scenarios

Abstract

A circular economy involves managing and reducing the environmental and social impacts of products and materials throughout their entire lifecycle, from production to end of life, including clean energy technologies. The remarkable growth of wind turbine (WT) deployment in Australia, as a clean energy source, is promising, with over 10 gigawatts (GW) installed by 2023. Responsible management of wind turbines throughout the entire supply chain, including their end of life, is crucial to prevent potential environmental issues caused by significant waste volumes and to identify opportunities for resource recovery. This study offers a comprehensive overview of current and future WT waste through material flow analysis (MFA) under five national wind energy deployment scenarios, considering various wind turbine technologies. The results indicate that the projected cumulative WT installation capacity will range from 13 to 38 GW by 2041. Consequently, the cumulative WT waste volume is expected to range between 6.69 and 19.76 million tonnes in 2060, depending on the scenario, with the “slow change” scenario producing the least waste and the “step change” scenario generating the most. The estimated waste stream will see a rapid increase from about 2028, encompassing a variety of materials, primarily concrete at 10.20 million tonnes, followed by 3.21 million tonnes of steel and 35.41 kt of copper by 2060. Additionally, valuable materials such as rare earth elements (REEs) and composites, despite their smaller quantities, have significant environmental, economic, and supply chain security implications. This substantial waste material presents an opportunity for resource recovery and underscores the importance of adopting a circular economy approach for wind energy systems.