Forecasting emergency depatment attendances

Abstract

Given the central role which demand plays in the cost of health care, Money Matters has recently been exploring the issues around forecasting demand (Jones, 2010e-f). Having been involved in health care planning for over 18 years, I have serious reservations about the central assumption in NHS planning that demographic change or the ageing population is driving demand (Jones, 2010k). In this respect, increases in accident and emergency (A&E) attendances, which are far above that suggested by demography, are a common international feature (Santos-Eggimann, 2002; Zaragoza Fernandez et al, 2009; Chu et al, 2009).