Abstract
Background: In Malaysia, residential electricity consumption has shown a steady upward trend year by year. Due to this increase in energy consumption, it is important to forecast the value of electricity consumption until the year 2032 to accommodate the electricity demand. Methods: Three exponential smoothing models were compared to identify the most appropriate model in forecasting electricity consumption. The three exponential smoothing models are Simple, Holt, and Brown exponential smoothing. To identify the most appropriate model, a mean absolute percentage (MAPE) was chosen. Results: The results show that Holt’s exponential smoothing has the best performance with the lowest MAPE score of 2.299. Conclusions: Consequently, it was found that electricity consumption would substantially increase from 2647 ktoe (kilotonne of oil equivalent) to 3873 ktoe within the period of 2019 to 2032.
Highlights
In Malaysia, energy is no longer viewed as a luxury as it is becoming a necessity in our everyday activities such as in transportation, production, commercial activities, and residential anthropogenic activities.[1]
An analysis of the historical data was conducted to examine the pattern of electricity consumption trend from 1997 until 2018 for the residential sector in Malaysia
All three exponential smoothing methods, namely simple, Holt’s and Brown exponential smoothing were capable of forecasting electricity consumption
Summary
In Malaysia, energy is no longer viewed as a luxury as it is becoming a necessity in our everyday activities such as in transportation, production, commercial activities, and residential anthropogenic activities.[1]. The accuracy of forecasting can be observed to obtain significant results in the projection of electricity consumption.[5] In this study, three different exponential smoothing models were utilised to forecast electricity consumption: simple, Holt, and Brown’s exponential smoothing. In Malaysia, residential electricity consumption has shown a steady upward trend year by year. Due to this increase in energy consumption, it is important to forecast the value of electricity consumption until the year 2032 to accommodate the electricity demand. Methods: Three exponential smoothing models were compared to identify the most appropriate model in forecasting electricity consumption. Conclusions: it was found that electricity consumption would substantially increase from 2647 ktoe (kilotonne of oil equivalent) to 3873 ktoe within the period of 2019 to 2032
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