Forecasting Electricity Consumption for Accurate Energy Management in Commercial Buildings With Deep Learning Models to Facilitate Demand Response Programs

Abstract

In the context of rapidly increasing energy demands and environmental concerns, optimizing energy management in commercial buildings is a critical challenge. Smart grids, empowered by advanced Energy Management Systems (EMS), play a pivotal role in addressing this challenge through Demand Side Management (DSM). However, the efficiency of DSM-based building EMS is often limited by the accuracy of load forecasting. This paper addresses this gap by exploring load forecasting models within DSM-based building EMS, focusing on a case study in a commercial building in Ankara, Turkey. Employing Deep Learning (DL) models for load forecasting, we provide inputs for rule-based controllers to enhance energy efficiency. Our major contribution is the development of the ANFIS-IC algorithm, aimed at maximizing demand response participation in commercial buildings. ANFIS-IC, integrating ANFIS controllers with LSTM-based load consumption forecasts, leads to a 33.14% reduction in energy consumption and a 39.22% decrease in energy costs, surpassing the performance of rule-based controllers alone which achieve reductions of 25.34% in energy consumption and 34.03% in energy costs. These findings not only highlight the potential of integrating rule-based controllers with deep learning algorithms but also underscore the importance of accurate load forecasting in improving the effectiveness of DSM-based building EMS.