Abstract
Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges (as a novelty pursued by a few ‘quants’) toward the mainstream of the discipline. Amongst the most high profile of election forecasting techniques are prediction markets and vote-intention polls. While the weight of scholarly opinion appears to favour prediction markets over polls for election forecasting, there remain challengers and critics. 
 This article joins with the challengers and the critics, looking at whether this ‘horse race’ competition between election forecasting approaches is valid. Using data from the 2013 Australian federal election, we conclude such comparisons-of-forecasts are misplaced in the Australian context, as prediction markets and vote-intention polls appear to be independent of each other given information from one appears to have no impact on the other.
Highlights
Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges toward the mainstream of the discipline
In most election prediction markets, participants are taking a position on what they think will be the outcome of the election; the collective decision of other people
There is a growing volume of scholarly literature examining the performance of prediction markets, both per se and relative to various forms of vote-intention polls, in forecasting election outcomes
Summary
Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges (as a novelty pursued by a few political ‘quants’) toward the mainstream of the discipline (and of increasing interest to politicians, strategists and the allied media). The emergence of election forecasting competitions, looking at which forecaster and/or technique delivers the ‘best’ or the ‘better’ forecast, underscores the still open nature of the range of alternate approaches. Amongst the most high profile of election forecasting techniques are prediction markets and vote-intention polls. While the weight of scholarly opinion appears to favour prediction markets over polls for election forecasting, there remain challengers and critics. Between election forecasting approaches is valid, and whether one or other method adds any informational value to the other. Using data from the 2013 Australian federal election, we conclude such comparisons-of-forecasts are misplaced in the Australian context, as prediction markets and vote-intention polls are addressing different questions, and they appear to be independent of each other given information from one appears to have no impact on the other
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
