Forecasting effect of Caprini risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism on venous thromboembolism among surgery patients: a Meta analysis

Abstract

Objective To comprehensively review the forecasting effect of Caprini risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism (VTE) on VTE among surgery patients with the method of Meta analysis. Methods We retrieved the articles on the forecasting Caprini risk assessment model for VTE on VTE in the Cochrance Library, PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, China Biology Medicine, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) , WanFang data, Vip Database (VIP) published from establishing database to 31st December 2017. The diagnostic studies quality evaluation instrument was used to assess the quality of the included articles and the data were analyzed with the Meta-Disc 1.4 software and Stata software. Results A total of 7 articles were included (n=1 520) . Heterogeneity test showed that there was heterogenicity in the included researches with 0.85 (95% CI: 0.79-0.90) for the combined sensibility by random effect model, 0.58 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61) for the specificity, 2.16 (95% CI: 1.76-2.65) for the positive likelihood ratio, 0.18 (95% CI: 0.07-0.48) for the negative likelihood ratio and 12.06 (95% CI: 4.76-30.56) . The area under the curve of summary receive opearating characteristic curve (SROC) was 0.748 with no publication bias. Conclusions The Caprini risk assessment model for VTE is a single indicator for the forecasting effect of the VTE of patients with surgery along with a high predictive sensibility and a strong overall diagnostic efficiency. It can effectively screen patients with the risk of venous thrombosis with a diagnostic value and low specificity. We should carry out many perspective studies and establish a suitable critical value aiming at scales in the future. Key words: Meta-analysis; Venous thromboembolism; Caprini risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism; Forecasting; Systematic review