Abstract
Abstract. The humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts (2008–2009 and 2010–2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought forecasts with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model precipitation forecasts in combination with drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially lead to a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for March–May and October–December rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the available in situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for October–December rain season has higher skill than for the March–May season. ECMWF forecasts add value to the consensus forecasts produced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), which is the present operational product for precipitation forecast over East Africa. Complementing the original ECMWF precipitation forecasts with SPI provides additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought event.
Highlights
Droughts have major economic and humanitarian impacts because rain-fed agriculture is the backbone of most economies in East Africa
In preparation for each forum meteorologists from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan (Fig. 1) convene at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) to issue a joint forecast for the forthcoming season
By means of statistical downscaling and local knowledge, forecasters from the national meteorological centres of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan issue what is known as the consensus forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa
Summary
Droughts have major economic and humanitarian impacts because rain-fed agriculture is the backbone of most economies in East Africa. Damage to the agricultural sector leaves the region exposed to the risk of famine, as demonstrated by the widespread famine and humanitarian crises caused by the two major droughts in the last decade (2008– 2009 and 2010–2011). To coordinate action over the Greater Horn of Africa region, which the East African countries are part of, the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF, 2014) are held three times a year before the relevant rainy periods (March–May, July– August, October–December). In preparation for each forum meteorologists from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan (Fig. 1) convene at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) to issue a joint forecast for the forthcoming season
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