Forecasting demand of public electric vehicle charging infrastructure

Abstract

Lack of electric vehicle charging infrastructure is a major barrier to electric vehicle (EV) adoption although the environmental benefits of EVs are well documented. Deployment of this infrastructure should be optimized to maximize use and facilitate adoption of this new technology. Forecasting the amount and location of demand for EVSE will help utilities anticipate and plan for this new electricity load. We present a methodology to forecast the demand for public electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) and identify priority locations. This methodology uses travel behavior data from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), projections of EV ownership, and spatial data of employer (non-residential) locations. We provide a case study of EVSE deployment in the state of Vermont through 2023. We estimate that each public EVSE in Vermont will serve 0.04 EVs, and that 226 charging stations will be needed by 2023. Cumulative cost estimates of required infrastructure range from $1.6 to $4.7 million over the course of 2013-2023. We identified 40 areas in the state with significant density of EV priority employment. Although forecasting demand for the state in aggregate is helpful for budgetary reasons, planning agencies should also consider the importance of spatial coverage of EVSE, as well as potential clustering of EVs, which may cause clustering of EVSE demand. Finally, we provide a discussion of a variety of business models that can be used to fund EVSE infrastructure installation and maintenance. These models include: subscription services, fee for use, pairing EVSE with solar power, generation and sale of renewable fuel credits (RINs), and public land swaps. Innovative financing methods may allow quicker penetration of EVs and reduce the financial burden of public EVSE installation.