Forecasting Demand for Personal Protective Equipment for Ontario Acute Care Hospitals During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

AbstractMaintaining an adequate supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) is a global challenge for health systems during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating PPE demand is critical for planning clinical activities and managing supplies. We used health system modelling to forecast PPE demand in Ontario’s acute care sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we estimated PPE demand by integrating PPE requirements for patient contacts into an existing health system model that forecasts near-term (up to 60 days) COVID-19 cases and their care trajectory in Ontario’s acute care system. We modeled two PPE strategies to care for confirmed and suspected COVID-19 patients: a base case scenario considering provincial PPE use recommendations, and a hospital-level case study using a PPE policy of universal masking and conservation strategies. Our base case estimate of PPE required to care for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients in Ontario’s acute care hospitals over a 60-day period was substantial—over 4.5 million each of surgical masks, face shields, and gowns would be required. Our hospital-level case study demonstrated that reuse of PPE reduces demand and offsets the effects of healthcare worker point of care assessments for N95 masks. Our work shows that health system modelling can estimate demand for PPE across pandemic trajectories and PPE use policies. The PPE volume required to safely care for COVID-19 patients is substantial and different PPE policies have marked effects on demand, which needs to be taken into account in procurement decisions to ensure adequate supply.