Abstract
Four techniques are described for forecasting the demand for paratransit required by the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA): surveys, intuitive comparison with other systems, cross-sectional econometric analysis, and time-series econometric analysis. The application of these methods in Seattle and New York is described, illustrating the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The ADA leaves considerable room for localities to determine the level of trip denials that can be tolerated. The econometric models provide a quantitative forecast of the effects of different levels of service availability as measured by trip denial rates. It demonstrates that the importance of service availability varies among communities.
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