Forecasting crude oil price intervals and return volatility via autoregressive conditional interval models

Abstract

Crude oil prices are of vital importance for market participants and governments to make energy policies and decisions. In this paper, we apply a newly proposed autoregressive conditional interval (ACI) model to forecast crude oil prices. Compared with the existing point-based forecasting models, the interval-based ACI model can capture the dynamics of oil prices in both level and range of variation in a unified framework. Rich information contained in interval-valued observations can be simultaneously utilized, thus enhancing parameter estimation efficiency and model forecasting accuracy. In forecasting the monthly West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, we document that the ACI models outperform the popular point-based time series models. In particular, ACI models deliver better forecasts than univariate ARMA models and the vector error correction model (VECM). The gain of ACI models is found in out-of-sample monthly price interval forecasts as well as forecasts for point-valued highs, lows, and ranges. Compared with GARCH and conditional autoregressive range (CARR) models, ACI models are also superior in volatility (conditional variance) forecasts of oil prices. A trading strategy that makes use of the monthly high and low forecasts is further developed. This trading strategy generally yields more profitable trading returns under the ACI models than the point-based VECM.