Forecasting consumer adoption of information technology and services — Lessons from home video forecasting

Abstract

Forecasting the adoption of new technologies for home and other users remains an inexact science. Studying the performance of past forecasts is one way to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of forecasting. Little research on past technological forecasts has been published. While the accuracy of current predictions for home information technology adoption will be validated over time, home video technology (videodisc players and videocassette recorders) has already evolved to a more mature state. This article reports on a research effort which involved the collection and critical analysis of forecasting studies made for home video players in the late 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. Correct and incorrect forecast assumptions are explicated and assessed. Results of that analysis with implications for home information technology forecasting are reported here. © 1989 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.