Forecasting Commodity Market Returns Volatility: A Hybrid Ensemble Learning GARCH‐LSTM based Approach

Abstract

SummaryThis study investigates the advantage of combining the forecasting abilities of multiple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)‐type models, such as the standard GARCH (GARCH), exponential GARCH (eGARCH), and threshold GARCH (tGARCH) models with advanced deep learning methods to predict the volatility of five important metals (nickel, copper, tin, lead, and gold) in the Indian commodity market. This paper proposes integrating the forecasts of one to three GARCH‐type models into an ensemble learning‐based hybrid long short‐term memory (LSTM) model to forecast commodity price volatility. We further evaluate the forecasting performance of these models for standalone LSTM and GARCH‐type models using the root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and mean fundamental percentage error. The results highlight that combining the information from the forecasts of multiple GARCH types into a hybrid LSTM model leads to superior volatility forecasting capability. The SET‐LSTM, which represents the model that combines forecasts of the GARCH, eGARCH, and tGARCH into the LSTM hybrid, has shown the best overall results for all metals, barring a few exceptions. Moreover, the equivalence of forecasting accuracy is tested using the Diebold–Mariano and Wilcoxon signed‐rank tests.