Forecasting Civil Aviation Incident Rate in China Using a Combined Prediction Model

Yixiang Sun,Nana Geng,Di Huang

doi:10.1155/2021/5521526

Abstract

With the rapid development of air transportation, the complexity, importance, and severity of civil aviation safety have gradually become prominent. It is essential to use various data to analyze and predict the level of aviation safety. This paper used a combined prediction model based on Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging (IOWA) operator to forecast the civil aviation incident rate. We compiled and calculated civil aviation incident data and total flight hours from 2008 to 2019 in China and took the civil aviation incident rate (incident numbers per ten thousand flight hours) as the prediction object. First, this paper used the nonlinear regression model, Grey Verhulst model, and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model to forecast the civil aviation incident rate individually. Then, it used the smallest sum of squared errors as the principle to use a combined prediction model based on the IOWA operator. It can be seen from the experimental results that the prediction accuracy of the combined model is better than single models. Finally, this paper forecasted the civil aviation incident rate in 2020 and 2021. The results showed that the predicted rates are 0.524 and 0.551. Most notably the incident rate will increase significantly compared with 2019.

Highlights

Safety is the primary prerequisite for the development of civil aviation
Aviation safety should not be relaxed because accidents in civil aviation will often cause significant losses. e research of aviation accident data and incident data plays a vital role in aviation safety management
According to reports from the Dutch aviation consultancy To70, 299 people died in crashes of civil aviation large commercial airliners in 2020. e number of people who died in crashes of civil aviation large commercial airliners in 2019 is 257. e aviation operation is full of randomness and uncertainty

Summary

Introduction

Safety is the primary prerequisite for the development of civil aviation. In recent years, the safety level of civil aviation in China has been continuously improved. Aviation safety should not be relaxed because accidents in civil aviation will often cause significant losses. According to reports from the Dutch aviation consultancy To70, 299 people died in crashes of civil aviation large commercial airliners in 2020. E number of people who died in crashes of civil aviation large commercial airliners in 2019 is 257. Civil aircraft incident refers to the occurrence of events related to aircraft that do not constitute an accident but may affect safety during the aircraft’s operation [2]. Effective prediction can reduce economic losses and has a particular significance for civil aviation safety management development. Is paper used a combined prediction model for forecasting civil aviation incident rates in the two years based on IOWA operator. We forecasted the incident rate of civil aviation in China from 2020 to 2021

Literature Review

Forecasting Civil Aviation Incident Rate in China

Conclusions