Forecasting China's electricity generation using a novel structural adaptive discrete grey Bernoulli model

Abstract

The generation forecast helps to develop the scheduling plan of power sources, build a power balance system and ensure the adequacy of power supply to the power system at the macro level. Therefore, a novel structurally adaptive discrete grey Bernoulli model, called DHGBM(1,1), is proposed in this paper for the prediction of power generation. Firstly, the Hausdorff fractional order cumulative generation operation makes it possible to achieve new information prioritisation. As for the structure of the model, we have extended the nonlinear grey Bernoulli model with the introduction of a nonlinear dynamic structure term, which allows the model to simulate variable generation data and improves the adaptability of the model. In a comparative test of the algorithms, the well-performing differential evolution algorithm was used for hyperparameter optimisation of the model to obtain better predictive performance. Monte Carlo simulations and probability density analysis verified the excellent robustness of the model. In addition, through the simulation tests, we obtained a reasonable range of parameters for the structural terms, thus limiting the complexity of the model, and the phenomenon of model overfitting was effectively prevented. Finally, five actual cases of China's hydro, China's thermal, China's nuclear, China's wind power generation and China's electricity exports are predicted.