Forecasting Chaotic Series in Manufacturing Systems by Vector Support Machine Regression and Neural Networks

Abstract

Currently, it is recognized that manufacturing systems are complex in their structure and dynamics. Management, control and forecasting of such systems are very difficult tasks due to complexity. Numerous variables and signals vary in time with different patterns so that decision makers must be able to predict the behavior of the system.This is a necessary capability in order to keep the system under a safe operation. This also helps to prevent  emergencies and the occurrence of critical events that may put in danger human beings and capital resources, such as expensive equipment and valuable production. When dealing with chaotic systems, the management, control, and forecasting are very difficult tasks. In this article an application of neural networks and vector support machines for the forecasting of the time varying average number of parts in a waiting line of a manufacturing system having a chaotic behavior, is presented. The best results were obtained with least square support vector machines and for the neural networks case, the best forecasts, are those with models employing the invariants characterizing the system’s dynamics.