Forecasting changes in consumer behavior in conditions of economic crisis

Abstract

Subject. The article addresses the issue of forecasting changes in consumer behavior patterns in the medium and long term. Objectives. The focus is on consumer behavior prediction to identify potential growth points for small and medium-sized businesses in the field of trade and services. Methods. The methodological basis of the study is behavioral economics. The information base draws on analytical reports of Cerulli Associates, Profi Online Research, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Euromonitor International, and Ipsos research company, which developed and uses in its analysis a calculation methodology for the Global Consumer Confidence Index. Results. We analyzed the main trends of consumer behavior in 2022 in Russia in the context of tougher sanctions, global supply disruptions, and other crisis phenomena, from the perspective of existing knowledge about sustainable forms of Russian consumers’ reaction to crisis events in the economy. The paper highlights a decrease in loyalty to brands, expansion of online commerce to people over the age of 60, reduced demand for eco-products, and enhanced financial literacy, which is accompanied by an increase in demands for a fair price-quality ratio, as the key changes in consumer behavior that determine opportunities for businesses. Conclusions. Crises seriously affect the time frames of consumer planning. During the crisis, the time frames are reduced and blurred, and now consumers proceed from even greater uncertainty.