Forecasting catastrophic stratovolcano collapse: A model based on Mount Taranaki, New Zealand

Abstract

Research Article| November 01, 2012 Forecasting catastrophic stratovolcano collapse: A model based on Mount Taranaki, New Zealand Anke V. Zernack; Anke V. Zernack 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Shane J. Cronin; Shane J. Cronin 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Mark S. Bebbington; Mark S. Bebbington 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Richard C. Price; Richard C. Price 2Faculty of Sciences, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Ian E.M. Smith; Ian E.M. Smith 3School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92 019, Auckland, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Robert B. Stewart; Robert B. Stewart 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Jonathan N. Procter Jonathan N. Procter 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Anke V. Zernack 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Shane J. Cronin 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Mark S. Bebbington 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Richard C. Price 2Faculty of Sciences, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand Ian E.M. Smith 3School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92 019, Auckland, New Zealand Robert B. Stewart 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Jonathan N. Procter 1INR, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand Publisher: Geological Society of America Received: 05 Feb 2012 Revision Received: 26 Apr 2012 Accepted: 27 Apr 2012 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-2682 Print ISSN: 0091-7613 © 2012 Geological Society of America Geology (2012) 40 (11): 983–986. https://doi.org/10.1130/G33277.1 Article history Received: 05 Feb 2012 Revision Received: 26 Apr 2012 Accepted: 27 Apr 2012 First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Anke V. Zernack, Shane J. Cronin, Mark S. Bebbington, Richard C. Price, Ian E.M. Smith, Robert B. Stewart, Jonathan N. Procter; Forecasting catastrophic stratovolcano collapse: A model based on Mount Taranaki, New Zealand. Geology 2012;; 40 (11): 983–986. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G33277.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract Regular large-scale edifice collapse and regrowth is a common pattern during the long lifespans of andesitic stratovolcanoes worldwide. The >130 k.y. history of Mount Taranaki, New Zealand, is punctuated by at least 14 catastrophic collapses, producing debris avalanche deposits of 1 to >7.5 km3. The largest of these sudden events removed as much as one-third of the present-day equivalent cone. The resulting deposits show similar sedimentary and geomorphic features, suggesting similar proto-edifice characteristics, failure trigger mechanisms, and runout path conditions. Each collapse was followed by sustained renewed volcanism and cone regrowth, although there are no matching stepwise geochemical changes in the magma erupted; instead a stable, slowly evolving magmatic system has prevailed. Last Glacial climatic variations are also uncorrelated with the timing or magnitudes of edifice collapse. We demonstrate here that, if the magmatic composition erupted from stratovolcanoes is constant and basement geology conditions are stable, large-scale edifice collapse and the generation of catastrophic debris avalanches will be governed by the magma supply rate. Using a mass balance approach, a volume-frequency model can be applied to forecasting both the probable timing and volume of future edifice failure of such stratovolcanoes. In the Mount Taranaki case, the maximum potential size of a present collapse is estimated to be 7.9 km3, while the maximum interval before the next collapse is <16.2 k.y. The current annual collapse probability is ∼0.00018, with the most likely collapse being a small one (<2 km3). You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.