Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in Chongming: a novel hybrid forecasting model coupling gray correlation analysis and deep learning method.

Abstract

Predicting regional carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is essential for advancing toward global carbon neutrality. This study introduces a novel CO2 emissions prediction model tailored to the unique environmental, economic, and energy consumption of Shanghai Chongming. Utilizing an innovative hybrid approach, the study first applies grey relational analysis to evaluate the influence of economic activity, natural conditions, and energy consumption on CO2 emissions. This is followed by the implementation of a dual-channel pooled convolutional neural network (DCNN) that captures both local and global features of the data, enhanced through feature stacking. Gated recurrent unit (GRU) network then assesses the temporal aspects of these features, culminating in precise CO2 emission predictions for the region. The results indicate: (1) The proposed hybrid model achieves accurate predictions based on accounting data, with high precision, low error, and good stability. (2) The study found an overall increase in Chongming's carbon emissions from 2000 to 2022, with the prediction results being generally consistent with existing research findings. (3) The proposed method, based on Chongming's CO2 emission predictions, addresses issues such as the scarcity of effective accounting data and inaccuracies in traditional calculation methods. The results can provide effective technical support for local government policies on carbon reduction and promote sustainable development.