FORECASTING BUSINESS PROCESSES UNDER EXTREME CONDITIONS

Abstract

The paper discusses the methodology of forecasting business processes, methods and their importance in extreme conditions of business process development. It has been shown that the main reason for the failure of business companies is incorrect management, which is mainly related to incorrect forecasting of the development of events and underestimation of expected risks. The attention is focused on qualitative, quantitative and expert methods of forecasting. Their features and specifics of use in extreme management conditions are analyzed. It is also about forecasting errors. Finally, a conclusion is drawn that it is preferable to use the combined forecasting methods in extreme management. Keywords: extreme situation, extreme management, forecasting the development of business processes, methodology and methods of forecasting.