Forecasting bitcoin: Decomposition aided long short-term memory based time series modeling and its explanation with Shapley values

Abstract

Bitcoin price volatility fascinates both researchers and investors, studying features that influence its movement. This paper expends on previous research and examines time series data of various exogenous and endogenous factors: Bitcoin, Ethereum, S&P 500, and VIX closing prices; exchange rates of the Euro and GPB to USD; and the number of Bitcoin-related tweets per day. A period of three years (from September 2019 to September 2022) is covered by the research dataset. A two-layer framework is introduced tasked with accurately forecasting Bitcoin price. In the first layer, to account for complexities in the analyzed data, variational mode decomposition (VMD) extracts trends from the time series. In the second layer, Long short-term memory and hybrid Bidirectional long short-term memory networks were used to forecast prices several steps ahead. This work also introduced an enhanced variant of the sine cosine algorithm to tune the control parameters of VMD and both neural networks for attaining the best possible performance. The main focus is on combining VMD with modified metaheuristics to improve cryptocurrency closing value forecast. Two sets of experiments were conducted, with and without VMD. The results have been contrasted with models tuned by seven other cutting-edge optimizers. Extensive experimental outcomes indicate that Bitcoin price can be forecasted with great accuracy using selected features and time series decomposition. Additionally, the best model was analyzed, and Shapley values indicated that features such as EUR/USD exchange rates, Ethereum closing prices, and GBP/USD exchange rates, have a significant impact on forecasts.