FORECASTING ASPECT OF STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC RISK

Abstract

Objective. The objective of the article is to investigate the methodological basis of application of forecasting models and methods in performing statistical assessment of economic risk, in particular, to assess the possibility of reducing systematic risk through forecasting planning of the enterprise and taking into account the semi-variance approach to risk calculation. Methods. The theoretical basis of the study is achievements of foreign and national scientists. To achieve this goal, the following research methods are used: analysis, synthesis, abstract-logical and comparative analysis to classify economic risks and methods of their assessment; dispersion- semi-variance analysis to determine the level of risk indicators of the volume of sold industrial products by the type of economic activity; regression analysis to build forecast models, to obtain future values of sales indicators for industrial products by type of economic activity and to clarify the risk level for the evaluated indicators. Results. The directions of risk classification and uncertainty are considered, the main approaches to the quantitative calculation of systematic economic risk are analyzed, semi-variance analysis and its advantages are determined. It is proposed to use the methods of moving averages and regression forecast modeling in determining the level of risk, which will more accurately take into account future values of uncertain indicators, and, consequently, will reduce the level of risk when planning the enterprise. In practice, the advantages of forecasting and semi-variance approaches to calculating the level of economic risk by indicators of the volume of sold industrial products by type of economic activity have been established.