Abstract
Tea production plays a significant role in the Sri Lankan economy. This study focused on modelling and forecasting the total annual tea production in Sri Lanka and also the annual tea productions in Sri Lankan major tea growing areas; low grown, mid grown, and high grown. The annual total tea production data from 1964 to 2015 and the annual tea production data of major tea growing areas from 1970 to 2015 were collected from the central bank reports of Sri Lanka. Time series models were fitted by the Box and Jenkins ARIMA model approach. Series were tested for stationary by the Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Differencing techniques were applied to transform non stationary series to stationary series. Model diagnostics were performed by Ljung Box test and autocorrelation function of residuals. ARIMA (2, 2, 1) was the best fitting model for the total annual tea production and also the annual tea production in the low grown areas. ARIMA (1,2,1) was the best fitting model for the annual tea production in mid grown areas and ARIMA (2,1,0) was the best fitting model for the annual tea production in high grown areas. Forecasting of annual production for respective series was made up to the year 2020. An increment of 4.08% of total annual tea production in 2020 is predicted by the fitted model and it is also expected that production increments of 5.15%, 2.6% and 4.5% in low, mid and high grown areas, respectively, compared to the average production from 2011 to 2015.
Highlights
Contribution of the agriculture sector for Sri Lankan economy is very high and the tea cultivation within the agricultural sector plays a significant role in socio-economic status of people living in the island
The other series of high grown, medium grown and low grown showed the similar pattern as the national total tea production
Any of the series was not confirmed with the stationary condition as per Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) test
Summary
Contribution of the agriculture sector for Sri Lankan economy is very high and the tea cultivation within the agricultural sector plays a significant role in socio-economic status of people living in the island. Tea cultivation could be considered as a contributing sector for formulating and exerting over one million various employment opportunities (Thushara, 2015) with uplifting the economic status of the country by the assistance of huge export earnings. In 2015, the cultivated land extend of tea in Sri Lanka was 203,000 ha and it is the secondly most cultivated crop (land extend wise) after coconut among plantation crops. At the same time the highest share for the GDP from plantation sector was by tea cultivation which was 0.9% in 2013 (Central Bank, 2013). The majority of the cultivated lands (both small scale and large scale) are in rural areas and the rural population get benefits from the tea cultivation.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
