FORECASTING AND ON THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC FACTORS ON RISING DENGUE INCIDENCE IN BAGUIO CITY, PHILIPPINES

Joseph Ludwin De Castro Marigmen,Rizavel Corsino Addawe

doi:10.32890/jcia2022.1.1.3

Joseph Ludwin De Castro Marigmen, Rizavel Corsino Addawe

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.32890/jcia2022.1.1.3

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Abstract

Dengue fever or dengue has been a concern for individuals living in Baguio City, Philippines. Every year, incidence counts rise during rainy seasons experienced from June to October. Several researches suggest that meteorological factors have great influence on the life, growth, and reproduction of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, resulting in higher dengue incidence in the area. With the continuing rise of dengue incidence in Baguio City, we aim to forecast dengue incidence in the area for the year 2019, starting from January until the end of the outbreak period in the area. Here, we use the projections package of R as it involves the serial interval distribution and 𝑅𝑡 value of dengue incidence. We also aim to use multiple linear regression analysis to determine if meteorological factors have significant effects in the rise of dengue incidence in the city. With the inclusion of time-varying reproduction number and serial interval distribution of dengue, we projected that dengue incidence may reach up to 101 cases by June 16, 2021, and without further actions, cases may rise up to 529 cases by August 29, 2021. Based on the average two-year period, such increase is attributed to relative humidity and average temperature as these are the most significant factors associated with dengue incidence based on the MLR analysis. The highest and mean maximum temperatures remain as key meteorological variables that influence dengue incidence in the city. As early as possible, local officials are recommended to uphold proper safety and health procedures in preventing the spread of dengue in Baguio City.

Highlights

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral infection commonly spread by female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions, especially urban environments (Cogan, 2021)
Several notable researches were conducted to determine the effects of meteorological factors – humidity, precipitation, and temperature – to the growth of dengue incidence in a certain area
According to the study at Jakarta in Indonesia, the strong correlation between the population density of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, temperature, and relative humidity indicated that the weather factors influence the growth and population of mosquitoes in the area (Sintorini, 2018)

Summary

Introduction

Dengue fever (or dengue) is a mosquito-borne viral infection commonly spread by female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions, especially urban environments (Cogan, 2021). Several protective measures and clean-up drives were conducted to destroy potential breeding sites of dengue-carrying mosquitoes and larvae. Several notable researches were conducted to determine the effects of meteorological factors – humidity, precipitation, and temperature – to the growth of dengue incidence in a certain area. According to the study at Jakarta in Indonesia, the strong correlation between the population density of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, temperature, and relative humidity indicated that the weather factors influence the growth and population of mosquitoes in the area (Sintorini, 2018). In another study in Thailand, the combination of humidity and temperature has become beneficial in the development, survival, length of the extrinsic incubation period, and competence of denguecarrying mosquitoes (Campbell et al, 2013)

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