Abstract
We propose a novel Timed InterventionS, P, E, I, Q, R, D model for projecting the possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. The proposed model introduces a series of timed interventions that can account for the influence of real time changes in government policy and social norms. We consider three separate types of interventions: (i) Protective interventions: Where population moves from susceptible to protected corresponding to mask mandates, stay-at-home orders and/or social distancing. (ii) Release interventions: Where population moves from protected to susceptible corresponding to social distancing mandates and practices being lifted by policy or pandemic fatigue. (iii) Vaccination interventions: Where population moves from susceptible, protected, and exposed to recovered (meaning immune) corresponding to the mass immunization of the U.S. Population. By treating the pandemic with timed interventions, we are able to model the pandemic extremely effectively, as well as directly predicting the course of the pandemic under differing sets of intervention schedules. We show that without prompt effective protective/vaccination interventions the pandemic will be extended significantly and result in many millions of deaths in the U.S.
Highlights
We propose a novel Timed Intervention S, P, E, I, Q, R, D model for projecting the possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA
We see that at around day 140 the cases begin to trend sharply upwards again, which likely corresponds to the lifting of the stay-at-home orders and the general population relaxing their commitment to social distancing guidelines, we call this a “release” phase
It is important to note, that the pandemic will, have progressed beyond these dates by the time of publication, so our results here are designed to exemplify how one can use the timed intervention model to make predictions according to these data
Summary
We propose a novel Timed Intervention S, P, E, I, Q, R, D model for projecting the possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. (ii) Release interventions: Where population moves from protected to susceptible corresponding to social distancing mandates and practices being lifted by policy or pandemic fatigue. The timed interventions directly control the waveforms of the susceptible and protected states S, and P, which would normally be modeled by logistic-like functions but have a piecewise waveform in our model that is only logistic-like between successive interventions. There is an inherent need for established and validated long term forecasting of epidemics, to help guide policy making decisions and establish cost-benefit a nalyses[8,9]. This is all the more critical during the current COVID-19 crisis
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