Forecasting and management of innovation and investment development of iron ore enterprises based on stochastic risk modelling

Abstract

The article considers theoretical and methodological applied aspects of modeling and quantification of financial and economic risks in forecasting and managing innovation and investment development of industrial entities under conditions of uncertainty on the example of iron ore enterprises. It is established that the need to take into account stochasticity in forecasting and managing innovation and investment development of iron ore enterprises is due to random factors of the parameters of the development of iron ore deposits and increasing the impact of associated risks. At the same time, force majeure risks are important, in particular, due to the spread of coronavirus disease and others. It is concluded that the uncertainty in forecasting and managing the innovation and investment development of iron ore enterprises is reflected in the effective financial and economic performance of the enterprise. The aim of the study is to develop applied theoretical approaches to risk management of iron ore enterprises to forecast the prospects of innovation and investment development, taking into account the impact of stochastic uncertainty inherent in the development of iron ore deposits and unforeseen associated risks. In this case, taking into account stochasticity in forecasting methods requires modeling quantitative risk estimates based on the use of boundary theorems of the theory of probabilities of the law of large numbers. As a result of the conducted researches the approach to economic and mathematical modeling of risk in forecasting and management of innovation and investment development of iron ore enterprises taking into account the set limit values of the interval of reliability of the forecast is developed.